Global Luxury Stocks: A Fundamental Analysis

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Behind the glitzy storefronts of luxury brands lies an opulent world filled with desire and aspiration—the luxury goods industryMuch like the exquisite handbags and sparkling jewels showcased in these displays, stocks in this sector have become a magnet for investors worldwide.

Chapter One: Luxury Goods Companies Listed in France

France reigns supreme in the luxury arena, with its publicly traded companies exhibiting immense strength that dominates the global market valuation rankingsNotable representatives include LVMH, Hermes, L'Oreal, Dior, and EssilorLuxottica.

These industry leaders, all headquartered in France, showcase significant valuation variability

For example, lower valued companies can have price-earnings ratios below ten, like Kering, while others, such as Hermes, can boast ratios exceeding fiftyTaking LVMH, which has a market cap of €2.4 trillion and a price-earnings ratio of around 21, as a reference point provides a solid overview of valuation metrics.

One of the compelling aspects is the solid fundamentals of these luxury brandsThey not only maintain robust profit margins but also exhibit promising growth potential and favorable cash flowOn average, these companies achieve around 20% return on equity, with gross margins near 70% and net margins exceeding 15%. Over the past five years, most have maintained double-digit growth in their financial performances.

This fundamentally sound nature tends to reflect positively on their stock price performance

In the first two decades of this century, prices surged dramatically, while in the last three to four years, there has been notable price volatility, with shares oscillating at elevated levelsSuch long-term trends may be interlinked with the rise and fluctuations of the Chinese economy.

Let’s delve deeper into each of the prominent luxury companies in France.

(1) LVMH

With a diversified business landscape, LVMH operates across sectors such as wines and spirits, fashion and leather goods, perfumery and cosmetics, watches and jewelry, and high-end retail

Key brands under its umbrella include Hennessy, Louis Vuitton, Dior, Guerlain, Givenchy, Bulgari, and Tiffany.

Over the long term, LVMH has witnessed remarkable share price growthHowever, the past three years have seen plateaus with current P/E ratios around 21, and stock being valued at 29.5 times free cash flowIts debt ratio stands at 54%, with average return on equity over the past five years at an impressive 24%. Moreover, it yields a dividend of 2.3%, while maintaining healthy gross and net margins of 67% and 15.6%, respectively.

(2) Hermes

Hermes specializes in leather and saddlery, ready-to-wear apparel, silk and textiles, perfumes and cosmetics, watches, jewelry, and homeware

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Its historical stock performance has been consistently strong, currently trading at a P/E ratio of 56, with shares priced at 62 times free cash flow.

With a debt ratio of only 26%, Hermes enjoys an average return on equity of 27% over the past five yearsAlthough its dividend yield is relatively low at 0.77%, the gross margin stands at an impressive 71%, and net margin reaches 26%. Furthermore, the company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% in revenue over the past three years.

(3) L'Oreal

A leading name in the global cosmetics production sector, L'Oreal's offerings include personal care products, hair color, beauty products, and perfumes, with brands such as Helena Rubinstein, Lancôme, and Maybelline.

The long-term stock trajectory has been favorable, characterized by some volatility in recent years

Currently, L'Oreal trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29, with shares valued at 44 times free cash flowIt sits with a debt ratio of 44%, and a return on equity of 17.5% on average over the last five years.

(4) Dior

As a noted fashion brand under LVMH, Dior is renowned for its haute couture, luxury handbags, shoes, jewelry, watches, fragrances, and cosmetics.

The long-term trend for Dior’s stock has seen growth, though it has encountered substantial fluctuations recentlyCurrently, it trades at a P/E ratio of 17, with share valuations at just 11.5 times free cash flow

Its fundamentals mirror LVMH’s closely, with a debt ratio of 55% and a 24.6% average return on equity over the past five years.

(5) EssilorLuxottica

EssilorLuxottica, a titan in the eyewear market, came to fruition from the merger of Essilor and Luxottica in 2017, forming the world’s largest optical lens giant.

The company has displayed consistent upward price movement, currently trading at a P/E ratio of 47, and 31 times free cash flowWith a debt ratio of 36%, its average return on equity sits at a modest 4.2%. The company maintains an annual dividend yield of 1.7%, with earnings increasing at a CAGR of 21% over the past three years.

Chapter Two: Luxury Goods Companies Listed in the United States

The United States hosts several noteworthy luxury brands, such as Estée Lauder, Coach, Ralph Lauren, and Tiffany & Co

Recently, Tiffany was delisted after being acquired by LVMH.

However, I find that many of these American brands' fundamentals lack the overall robustness seen in their French counterpartsHere are some defining characteristics:

1. Profit performance appears unstable, exhibiting greater fluctuations compared to French companiesWhile revenue growth maintains a general uptrend, the annual compound growth rate lags notably behind (typically under 10%), revealing insufficient growth potential.

2. While L'Oreal and Estée Lauder have similar gross margins averaging around 72-73%, their net margins are often quite low—Estée Lauder, for example, projected at just 2.6% in 2024.

3. American luxury brands typically exhibit high levels of financial leverage, raising their return on equity

For example, Estée Lauder's debt ratio stands at 75%, boasting a ROE of 7.2%, while Coach's debt ratio is 78%, allowing for a remarkable 31.5% ROE.

4. Regarding valuations, Coach and Ralph Lauren persist at around 20 times earnings, while Estée Lauder’s once robust earnings are now under scrutiny, pushing its P/E ratio over 60. Nevertheless, these companies still extend dividends, with yields of around 3.2% for Estée Lauder and 2.1% for Coach.

5. In contrast to the background of prolonged bullish trends in the U.Smarket, these companies have experienced tepid share price movementsCoach and Ralph Lauren both saw shares hit new highs after protracted waiting, while Estée Lauder plummeted by 80% due to dramatic shifts in performance.

Chapter Three: Luxury Goods Companies Listed in Italy

Italy's luxury sector boasts an illustrious history, yet the market capitalization of its listed companies remains comparatively modest

Key players include Prada and Moncler, with respective valuations significantly lower than those of their French counterparts.

Prada, a high-end brand specializing in leather goods and apparel, went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2011. Despite its prestigious reputation, its stock performance has been fairly lackluster, characterized by sideways movementCurrently, it boasts a P/E ratio of over 20, with a debt ratio of 49% and an average return on equity of 9.8%, which had improved to 18.3% by 2023. Their average dividend yield stands close to 2%.

Chapter Four: Luxury Goods Companies in Other Countries

Numerous luxury brands can be found globally, including Switzerland's Richemont, a leading name in jewelry and watchmaking, Germany's Hugo Boss, Denmark's Pandora, Canada's Canada Goose, and the UK’s Burberry.

Aside from prominent firms like Richemont and Pandora, many brands in this category are relatively small-scale ventures

Various hurdles, including brand presence, niche market limitations, and regional constraints, inhibit their growth.

While quaint old shops nestled in historical corners might still harbor ‘hidden gems’, they rarely present attractive investment opportunitiesThese small luxury companies tend to experience inconsistent performance year after yearCanada Goose showcases growth in revenue, yet its CAGR over the past five years rests at a mere 10%, accompanied by declining profit margins.

The focus shifts back to Richemont’s fundamentals for a more profound analysis.

Richemont is home to renowned brands in jewelry and high-end watchmaking, including Cartier and Vacheron Constantin

Exhibiting a long-term upward trajectory, its stock tends to fluctuate, maintaining valuations typically between 20 and 30 times earnings.

The company operates with a debt ratio of 53%, and an average return on equity of around 13%—bolstered to approximately 20% over the past two yearsWith an annual dividend yield of about 2.2%, its average over the last five years stands at 1.9%. Its average gross margins hover around 65%, while net margins fluctuate at 8.4%, reflecting considerable variability in net profit.

In China, although numerous high-end brands exist, few publicly traded firms make a lasting mark—besides the liquor industry

Among these, Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye stand out, with Moutai’s valuation placing it among the world's elite, and it is one of the rare giants relying on a single brand.

Despite recent challenges faced by the liquor sector leading to a decline in share prices, it’s undeniable that these companies maintain top-tier fundamentals akin to what one would expect on a global scale, demonstrated clearly in their Q3 2024 reports.

In summary:

The luxury goods industry represents a colossal market that has thrived for years

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