Winter has arrived, and the issue of getting through the winter that Europe has been worried about is finally at hand.
Some time ago, the price of natural gas saw a significant drop, but this does not mean that Europe's energy crisis is over. It seems that the temporary balance of supply and demand is still very fragile.
In just the past two days, a weather forecast report alone has caused the natural gas futures prices in Europe to suddenly soar by 20%.
This news has caused panic in many European countries, but the United States is delighted, as American energy merchants seem to have sensed another opportunity to reap profits.
Advertisement
01
As early as August, when the weather was hot and the demand for natural gas was not at its peak, the price of natural gas actually rose above 300 euros.
The apparent reason was the concern that a reduction in natural gas supplies from Russia would make it impossible for Europe to get through the winter. But in reality, the United States played quite a few tricks.
By continuously raising interest rates, the euro fell, and no matter where energy was imported from, the cost increased, so the price of natural gas in Europe kept rising.
On the other hand, the conflicts in Europe are also closely related to the United States' instigation.
However, since European countries began to desperately stock up on natural gas at that time, as the storage volume of natural gas facilities increased, the price of natural gas also began to fall, and it finally broke below 100 euros some time ago.Multiple countries in Europe have also announced that their natural gas reserves have reached 90%, with some countries even exceeding 95%. Germany and others have subsequently declared that there is no problem in getting through this winter with the current natural gas reserves.
Seems to alleviate people's worries, some time ago the European Union's meteorological agency also issued an official forecast report, this year Europe's temperature will be much higher than the winter temperature in previous years.
Data also shows that this October's weather was very warm, leading to a 20% reduction in Germany's natural gas demand compared to the average level in the past.
Based on this data, it seems that the amount of natural gas reserves in various countries is indeed sufficient to cope with this winter, and the United States' layout seems to have failed.
02
However, the situation seems to have changed recently.
First is the change in the weather, some countries in Europe are getting colder and colder, and the temperature in Berlin has even dropped to 0 degrees, and the use of natural gas has increased significantly.
On the other hand, it comes from the supply.
At present, the largest source of supply in Europe is Norway, but last week, due to a fire, the Norwegian National Oil Company's natural gas production decreased by nearly 20 million cubic meters per day, and it is expected to take at least until this weekend to recover.
These seem to be trivial matters, but they have caused significant fluctuations in the price of natural gas in Europe. It is clear that the energy crisis in Europe has not passed, but is temporarily in a weak balance.During the recent period when natural gas prices rose, a large amount of natural gas from the United States arrived in Europe through maritime transport. Although this met Europe's demand, American energy merchants made a fortune. However, with the recent decline in European natural gas prices, American energy merchants have been disappointed, and some cargo ships even chose to stay near European ports instead of unloading as soon as possible.
It is clear that the United States is still waiting for the rebound of natural gas prices in Europe. Recently, the second-largest liquefied natural gas company in the United States, Freeport, announced news that would cause natural gas prices to rise. The LNG terminal, which suspended operations due to an explosion accident in the middle of this year, has not yet determined when it can be restarted, and it may take until December at the earliest.
This means that natural gas, which accounts for 16% of U.S. exports, still cannot be supplied to Europe normally. For Europe, even if it can get through this winter smoothly, it does not mean that the energy crisis has been completely resolved. At most, it only postpones the time when the crisis will erupt.
It can be imagined that after the natural gas reserves for next year are exhausted, Europe will still face the situation of having to import a large amount of natural gas from the United States. As long as the price is still in the hands of the other party, it is difficult for the United States to avoid being repeatedly harvested.