Haitong Securities released a research report stating that since September 24, 2024, the activity in the capital market has significantly rebounded, and various reforms have continued to advance. The convenience of swaps among securities, funds, and insurance companies has begun to accept applications, with CITIC and CICC in the securities industry having business qualifications; the Shanghai Stock Exchange has clarified the "light assets, high R&D investment" recognition standards to support sci-tech innovation board companies to refinance and increase R&D investment, with leading securities firms having a significant advantage. The insurance industry's operations have a significant pro-cyclical characteristic, and in the future, with the economic recovery, both the liability and investment ends will significantly improve, and the development of the health and wellness industry is optimistic; the yield on ten-year government bonds is still low, and if the subsequent economic expectations improve and long-term interest rates rise, the investment pressure on insurance companies will significantly ease.
Securities: In October 2024, trading volume increased significantly; the convenience of swaps among securities, funds, and insurance companies began to accept applications.
1) In October 2024, trading volume surged. As of October 11, 2024, the average daily stock and fund trading volume in October 2024 was 2,879.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 214%, and a 215% increase compared to September. As of October 10, 2024, the two-way financing balance was 1,588.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%, and a decrease of 3.67% compared to the beginning of the year.
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2) The convenience of swaps among securities, funds, and insurance companies began to accept applications, with CITIC and CICC in the securities industry having business qualifications. The central bank announced the "convenience of swaps among securities, funds, and insurance companies," which started accepting applications from October 10, 2024, with a first phase scale of 500 billion yuan. The central bank will carry out operations through 51 specific primary dealers, among which only CITIC Securities and CICC have securities qualifications.
3) The Shanghai Stock Exchange clarified the "light assets, high R&D investment" recognition standards to support sci-tech innovation board companies to refinance and increase R&D investment. The Shanghai Stock Exchange formulated the "Shanghai Stock Exchange Issuance and Listing Review Rules Applicable Guidelines No. 6 - Light Assets, High R&D Investment Recognition Standards (Trial)," which clarified the scope of application, refined the recognition standards, further tightened the responsibilities of intermediary institutions, strengthened information disclosure requirements, and strengthened the supervision of raised funds.
4) The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a securities firm symposium to strive to open up the "last mile" of policy implementation. The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a securities firm symposium to listen to opinions and suggestions on further activating the mergers and acquisitions market and opening up the "last mile" of policy implementation. CITIC Securities, CICC, CITIC Construction Investment, Huatai United, Guoxin Securities, Orient Securities, and GF Securities participated in the meeting. The Shanghai Stock Exchange will continue to deepen the market-oriented reform of mergers and acquisitions, continuously improve various systems and mechanisms, strengthen market communication and services, promote more open, transparent, and predictable supervision, and jointly create a good market ecology that supports high-quality industrial mergers and acquisitions.
5) On October 11, 2024, the average valuation of the securities industry (excluding Oriental Wealth) was 1.4x 2024EP/B, recommending high-quality leaders that fully benefit from active capital market policies, such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, CICC, etc.
Insurance: Improvements in both the liability and asset ends, low valuation + low holdings, both offensive and defensive.
1) New China Life Insurance issued a performance increase announcement, expecting other insurance companies' profits in the third quarter to also increase significantly. New China Life Insurance's net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters is expected to be between 18.6 billion and 20.5 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1 billion to 11 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 95% to 115%; the net profit for the third quarter is about 7.5-9.4 billion yuan, achieving a profit (a loss of 440 million yuan in the same period last year). The significant year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters is mainly due to the company moderately increasing its investment in equity assets in the first three quarters; the recent rebound and rise in the capital market have led to a significant year-on-year increase in the company's investment income for the first three quarters of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the Wind All A, CSI 300, and China Bond Indexes rose by 8.2%, 17.1%, and 2.7%, respectively, significantly better than the same period last year's -1.4%, -4.7%, and +0.8%, which is expected to significantly increase the profit growth rate of the insurance industry.
2) The insurance industry disclosed August premiums, and the adjustment of the预定利率 drove a short-term high growth in life insurance premiums. In August, the original premium of life insurance companies increased by 54% year-on-year, a significant increase compared to the growth rate in July; health insurance increased by 21% year-on-year. Haitong Securities believes that the significant increase in August premiums is mainly due to: ① the short-term sales peak before the suspension caused by the adjustment of the预定利率 for traditional insurance in September, ② the lower base caused by the reduction of the预定利率 last year. Property insurance increased by 9% year-on-year, and the overall growth rate is relatively stable. Haitong Securities still looks forward to the long-term development of leading insurance companies. 3) Haitong Securities believes that the insurance industry's operations have a significant pro-cyclical characteristic, and in the future, with the economic recovery, both the liability and investment ends will significantly improve. On October 11, 2024, the insurance sector's valuation was 0.51-0.88 times 2024EP/EV, still at a historical low, maintaining a "better than the market" rating.Diversified Finance: 1) Trust: At the end of 2023, the scale of trust assets was 239.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +13.18%; the operating income of the trust industry in 2023 was 86.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +2.96%; the total profit was 42.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +16.92%. The "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Classification of Trust Companies" were issued and implemented, and in the future, trust companies will gradually move towards a path of differentiated development under the regulation of differentiated supervision. 2) Futures: Several departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Strengthening Supervision, Preventing Risks, and Promoting High-Quality Development of the Futures Market" to strengthen supervision, prevent risks, and promote the high-quality development of the futures market. In September 2024, the national futures trading market turnover was 794 million hands, with a transaction amount of 536.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +6.39% and +4.29%, respectively. In August 2024, the net profit of national futures companies was 517 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 46.54%.